Peter Wells in New York
Warnings on the spread of coronavirus from health experts and public officials — not to mention tighter restrictions on businesses and gatherings — have come thick and fast in the lead-up to Thanksgiving. But if there is one glimmer of hope before the holiday, it is that daily case rates in some parts of the Midwest have started to decline.
The region has been the hardest hit during this latest phase of the pandemic and experienced a surge in cases and hospitalisations during the autumn.
Adjusted for population, all 12 Midwest states have, this month, set a peak seven-day average of cases that eclipsed the worst rates experienced in places such as New York, Florida and Arizona during earlier phases of the crisis. Five of these states are still averaging more than 100 new cases per 100,000 people a day.
In recent days, though, there have been signs of reprieve. The Midwest has averaged about 60,000 new cases a day over the past week, according to a Financial Times analysis of data on Tuesday from the Covid Tracking Project, down from a record rate of 62,817 on November 19. Every other main geographic region in the US — the northeast, south and west, as defined by the Census Bureau — reached a record case rate this week.
Ohio was the only Midwest state that had its seven-day average of cases hit a record of about 8,500 a day on Tuesday, according to an FT analysis of CTP data. Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Illinois and Wisconsin all have daily case rates that are down at least 10 per cent from peak levels earlier this month.
In another optimistic development, the seven-day average for cases was below the 14-day average in all but three of the region’s states — Indiana, Kansas and Ohio. Shorter-term trends falling below longer-term rates may reflect a slowdown in the virus’s spread.
Furthermore, South Dakota and North Dakota — where population-adjusted rates for cases, hospitalisations and fatalities rank among the worst experienced by any state during the pandemic — both had their seven-day rates fall below their 28-day average in the past few days for the first time since before their autumn outbreaks. Iowa has done the same.
Signs also exist of an improvement with regard to hospitalisations in the region. All 12 Midwest states reached record levels of coronavirus hospitalisations this month, but just four — Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio — did so on Tuesday.
Deaths lag behind cases and hospitalisations, and it may be too early to tell how much further fatality rates in the Midwest have to go. Over the past week, about 543 people a day have died from coronavirus across the Midwest, a record. That is one fewer than the average death rate in the more populous south and compares to a national average of 1,517 fatalities a day, which is the highest since mid-May.
Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Missouri, Kansas, South Dakota and Nebraska on Tuesday had their highest average death rates of the pandemic.
Health experts and public officials have warned that infections could surge again after Thanksgiving, a time traditionally known for travel and socialising.
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