- The workforce is automating faster than expected,
displacing 85 million jobs in next five years - The
robot revolution will create 97 million new jobs, but
communities most at risk from disruption will need support
from businesses and governments - In 2025, analytical
thinking, creativity and flexibility are among the top
skills needed; with data and artificial intelligence,
content creation and cloud computing the top emerging
professions - The most competitive businesses will be
those that choose to reskill and upskill current
employees - Read
the Future of Jobs Report, watch
a video overview and watch
livestreamed sessions from the Jobs Reset
Summit.
Geneva, Switzerland, 21 October 2020 –
The Future of Jobs 2020 report has found that
COVID-19 has caused the labour market to change faster than
expected. The research released today by the World Economic
Forum indicates that what used to be considered the
“future of work” has already arrived.
By 2025,
automation and a new division of labour between humans and
machines will disrupt 85 million jobs globally in medium and
large businesses across 15 industries and 26 economies.
Roles in areas such as data entry, accounting and
administrative support are decreasing in demand as
automation and digitization in the workplace increases. More
than 80% of business executives are accelerating plans to
digitize work processes and deploy new technologies; and 50%
of employers are expecting to accelerate the automation of
some roles in their companies. In contrast to previous
years, job creation is now slowing while job destruction is
accelerating.
“COVID-19 has accelerated the arrival
of the future of work,” said Saadia Zahidi, Manging
Director, World Economic Forum. “Accelerating automation
and the fallout from the COVID-19 recession has deepened
existing inequalities across labour markets and reversed
gains in employment made since the global financial crisis
in 2007-2008. It’s a double disruption scenario that
presents another hurdle for workers in this difficult time.
The window of opportunity for proactive management of this
change is closing fast. Businesses, governments and workers
must plan to urgently work together to implement a new
vision for the global workforce.”
Some 43% of
businesses surveyed indicate that they are set to reduce
their workforce due to technology integration, 41% plan to
expand their use of contractors for task-specialized work,
and 34% plan to expand their workforce due to technology
integration.
By 2025, employers will divide work
between human and machines equally. Roles that leverage
human skills will rise in demand. Machines will be primarily
focused on information and data processing, administrative
tasks and routine manual jobs for white- and blue-collar
positions.
New sense of urgency for the reskilling
revolution
As the economy and job markets evolve, 97
million new roles will emerge across the care economy, in
fourth industrial revolution technology industries like
artificial intelligence, and in content creation fields. The
tasks where humans are set to retain their comparative
advantage include managing, advising, decision-making,
reasoning, communicating and interacting. There will be a
surge in demand for workers who can fill green economy jobs,
roles at the forefront of the data and artificial
intelligence economy, as well as new roles in engineering,
cloud computing and product development.
For those
workers set to remain in their roles in the next five years,
nearly 50% will need reskilling for their core
skills.
Despite the current economic downturn, most
employers recognize the value of reskilling their workforce.
An average of 66% of employers surveyed expect to see a
return on investment in upskilling and reskilling of current
employees within one year. They also expect to successfully
redeploy 46% of workers within their own organization. “In
the future, we will see the most competitive businesses are
the ones that have invested heavily in their human capital
– the skills and competencies of their employees,”
Zahidi said.
Building a more inclusive future of
work
The individuals and communities most negatively
affected by the unprecedented changes brought about by
COVID-19 are likely to be those that are already most
disadvantaged. In the absence of proactive efforts,
inequality is likely to be exacerbated by the dual impact of
technology and the pandemic recession.
The Future
of Jobs 2020 report partner ADP Research Institute
tracked the impact of COVID-19 on the United States labour
market. Between February and May 2020, data showed that
displaced workers were, on average, mostly female, younger
and had a lower wage. Comparing the impact of the global
financial crisis of 2008 on individuals with lower education
levels to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, the impact
today is far more significant and more likely to deepen
existing inequalities.
“In the wake of COVID-19, the
US workforce experienced immense change, and we were able to
track this impact on the labour market in near real time,”
said Ahu Yildirmaz, Head of ADP Research Institute Labour
Market Research. “While the swift and staggering job loss in
the initial months was significant, it is only one anomaly
of this ‘recession.’ Industry distribution, business size
and worker demographics were all disrupted due to labour
market changes brought about by COVID-19, signalling that
this downturn is unlike any other in modern US
history.”
“The pandemic has disproportionately
impacted millions of low-skilled workers,” said Jeff
Maggioncalda, Chief Executive Officer of Coursera, another
report partner. “The recovery must include a coordinated
reskilling effort by institutions to provide accessible and
job-relevant learning that individuals can take from
anywhere in order to return to the
workforce.”
Currently, only 21% of businesses
worldwide are able to make use of public funds for
reskilling and upskilling programmes. The public sector will
need a three-tiered approach to help workers. This includes
providing stronger safety nets for displaced workers,
improving the education and training systems and creating
incentives for investments in markets and the jobs of
tomorrow.
Companies can measure and disclose their
treatment of employees by adopting environmental, social and
governance (ESG) metrics. This will help benchmark success,
provide support where it is needed and ensure new gaps that
arise are quickly identified and closed.
Remote
working is here to stay but requires adaptation
Some
84% of employers are set to rapidly digitalize working
processes, including a significant expansion of remote
working. Employers say there is the potential to move 44% of
their workforce to operate remotely.
According to the
report, 78% of business leaders expect some negative impact
on worker productivity. This suggests that some industries
and companies are struggling to adapt quickly enough to the
shift to remote working caused by the COVID-19
pandemic.
To address concerns about productivity and
well-being, about one-third of all employers said they will
take steps to create a sense of community, connection and
belonging among their employees.
Career pivots become
the “new normal”
The research also indicated that
a growing number of people are making career changes to
entirely new occupations. According to LinkedIn data
gathered over the past five years, some 50% of career shifts
into data and artificial intelligence are from different
fields. That figure is much higher for sales roles (75%),
content creation and production positions, such as social
media managers and content writers (72%), and engineering
roles (67%).
“As we think about ways to upskill or
transition large populations of the workforce who are out of
work as a result of COVID-19 into new, more future-proofed
jobs, these new insights into career transitions and the
skills required to make them have huge potential for leaders
in the public and the private sector alike,” said Karin
Kimbrough, Chief Economist at LinkedIn.
“Our
research reveals the majority of transitions into jobs of
tomorrow come from non-emerging jobs, proving that many of
these jobs are more accessible than workers might think,
Kimbrough continued. “If we can help individuals, and the
leaders who are directing workforce funding and investment,
identify the small clusters of skills that would have an
outsized impact on opening up more sustainable career paths,
we can make a real difference in addressing the
unprecedented levels of unemployment that we’re seeing
globally.”
Data shows how long to
reskill
According to The Future of Jobs Survey, core
skills such as critical thinking, analysis and
problem-solving are consistently top of the reskilling and
upskilling priorities for educators and businesses. Newly
emerging in 2020 are skills in self-management such as
resilience, stress tolerance and flexibility.
Data
from Coursera suggests that individuals could start gaining
the top 10 skills for each emerging profession in people and
culture, content writing, sales and marketing in one to two
months. Those wishing to expand their skills in product
development and data and artificial intelligence could do so
in two to three months, and those switching into cloud
computing and engineering could make headway in the new
skillset through a four to five-month learning
programme.
There has been a fourfold increase in the
number of people seeking opportunities for online learning
under their own initiative, a fivefold increase in employers
offering their workers online learning opportunities and a
ninefold enrolment increase in people accessing online
learning through government programmes.
Those in
employment are placing larger emphasis on personal
development courses; those unemployed have placed greater
emphasis on learning digital skills such as data analysis,
computer science and information technology.
“The
pandemic has accelerated many of the trends around the
future of work, dramatically shrinking the window of
opportunity to reskill and transition workers into
future-fit jobs,” said Hamoon Ekhtiari, CEO of FutureFit
AI. “No matter what prediction you believe about jobs and
skills, what is bound to be true is heightened intensity and
higher frequency of career transitions especially for those
already most vulnerable and marginalized.”
“The
Future of Jobs Report is a critical source of insights in
supporting companies and government through these workforce
transitions, and FutureFit AI is honoured to share our data
and insights in the Report, Ekhtiari continued. “We look
forward to continuing to contribute to a just, worker-first,
and data-powered recovery as a partner of the World Economic
Forum’s New Economy & Society community and its
Reskilling Revolutions Platform.”
The Future of
Jobs
Now in its third edition, The Future of
Jobs report maps the jobs and skills of the future,
tracking the pace of change. It aims to shed light on the
pandemic-related disruptions in 2020, contextualized within
a longer history of economic cycles and the expected outlook
for technology adoption, jobs and skills in the next five
years. The Future of Jobs survey informs the report. It is
based on the projections of senior business leaders
(typically Chief Human Resource Officers and Chief Strategy
Officers) representing nearly 300 global companies, which
collectively employ 8 million workers.
It presents the
workforce planning and quantitative projections of chief
human resource and strategy officers through to 2025, while
also drawing on the expertise of a wide range of World
Economic Forum executive and expert communities. The report
features data from LinkedIn, Coursera, ADP and FutureFit.AI,
which have provided innovative new metrics to shed light on
one of the most important challenges of our
time.
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